日本央行鸽派异议委员释放支持未来加息信号

yun2026

日本央行鸽派异议委员释放支持未来加息信号

2026年9月，中国科学院南海海洋研究所等团队公布全球俯冲带研究结果，对用断层界面粗糙程度判断大地震潜力的传统观点提出挑战。研究人员分析15个俯冲带的35条板块边界断层，把直接观测到的界面起伏与历史地震、震中分布及板块耦合资料进行对比，发现粗糙和平滑的界面都可能发生八级以上地震。

团队采用三种独立方法，在一至十公里尺度上测量粗糙度，减少仅以海底地形代替深部界面特征带来的不确定性。结果中，最大地震震级与板块耦合强度存在明显联系，但界面粗糙度与这两项指标没有稳定的对应关系。同一界面的粗糙程度排序还会随测量方法和尺度变化。这意味着，地震危险性评估不能依赖单一几何指标，而需要综合考虑多种地质与力学因素。研究改进的是对地震发生机制的认识，并没有提供预测具体地震时间、地点和震级的新方法。

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